Thanks to the union of several
tiny countries in the island of British — Scotland, Wales, Northern
Ireland, led by England — giving up their sovereignty to form the Great
Britain, the United Kingdom, enjoying large population and market,
gradually became the economic and military powerhouse of Europe. And
also thanks to centuries-long stability and peace the union brought to
Britain, economic development — and the first industrial revolution —
blossomed with little or no opposition.
It was this unmatched British
imperial dominance that kept France and Germany so envious that they did
everything possible to dismantle the British Empire at all costs.
Little wonder, during the 100 years of British hegemony, Europe was
perpetually at war, including devastating Napoleonic Wars. But as
Europe, led by France and Germany, endlessly fought Britain, the United
States, taking advantage of the economic destruction caused by these
wars, was able to keep rising.
Little wonder to express its
anger to the rest of Europe, particularly France and Germany for the
role they played in making sure that the Great Britain was replaced by
the US in 1945 as the economic and military superpower, the UK has
continued to do everything possible to undermine any form of European
dominance. And that was why it is part of the first five nations that
started the unification of Europe in 1957. When it eventually joined on
January 1, 1973 along with Denmark and Ireland, it did
so with immense reluctance. But another reason the UK was Eurosceptic
had to do with its unannounced treaty with the US where Britain helped
the former in keeping Europe divided; in return, London enjoys
preferential treatment from Washington.
So, rather than being a fan of
the EU, Britain has always secretly done everything to undermine the EU.
And it is because of London’s anti-European Union stance that led to
Britain always keeping one foot in and one foot out. That’s also why
while London grudgingly accepted the EU’s custom union, which it saw
more beneficial than otherwise, London was fiercely opposed to a common
currency – the euro. It also refused to join Schengen Area visa policy
by the EU. Had London accepted euro, not only would that mean the end of
Britain’s glorious imperial past which the pounds with the Queen’s head
represented. In fact, Britain’s special relationship with America,
which has been the reason why London, and not Frankfurt, is the world’s
second financial capital next to New York’s Wall Street and why
Eurodollar (which is the largest concentration of dollars outside the
US) is domiciled in London. Notwithstanding London’s opposition to the
euro, the entire EU preferred London to Frankfurt as Europe’s financial
capital.
For this special relationship
between Washington and London, understandably, the rest of Europe —
particularly the two big and powerful European countries of Germany and
France — have always seen Britain as America’s mole in Europe, and as a
result has been doing everything to make sure that there is no European
unity that could stand in the way of America’s hegemony in the world.
So, keeping Europe fragmented has always been in the interest of both
Washington and London. And to ensure that that remains the case, the CIA
and the MI6 have a special channel of intelligence sharing more than
any other two countries in the world. This special relationship between
the US and the UK, understandably, has been behind this endless
nostalgia for the non-negotiability of Britain’s sovereignty.
Also, there is another important
economic advantage the UK has enjoyed over the rest of the EU,
notwithstanding its weak industrial and manufacturing base, which is far
behind that of Germany and France. It’s because of robust economic ties
with some of its former colonies in Africa and Asia. In fact, the whole
of Australia and Canada as independent as the two countries pretend to
be, their economies and politics are dominated by British investments
and British citizens. Little wonder, the Queen remains the head of state
of both Canada and Australia.
Now that Britain has finally
exited the EU, Britain is now coming to terms that actually it shot
itself in the foot. At least, within a few hours of the announcement,
from the fifth largest economy in the world Britain suddenly became the
sixth largest economy falling behind France. Brexit has since caused
financial tsunami around the world, wiping away over $2tn in stock
market value around the world. In the meantime, the pounds plunged to
its lowest level in 30 years. The EU’s hundreds of billions of dollar
investments in Britain are now threatened. As the pounds plummet, so is
the unprecedented exit of the currency, since every investor knows that
the collapse in value of the pounds is only starting. Across the EU,
pound-denominated cards are understandably being rejected, causing fear
among British people living and working in the EU.
As if not enough, the First
Minister of Scotland is spiting fire, insisting that the Scot Parliament
will meet not only to turn down the outcome of the referendum but begin
the process of organising another referendum with the goal of exiting
the United Kingdom and then join the EU. Should that happen, Britain can
a few years from now be reduced to a tiny state of England, which it
used to be before May 1, 1707, when the United Kingdom was created. The
UK’s loss of influence in the world would mean losing London’s European
financial capital to Frankfurt. And with this, comes the challenge of
the City of London’s role as the world’s second financial capital after
New York’s Wall Street. Without being the financial gateway to Europe,
Eurobond and Eurodollar dominated by London will cease to be the case.
As anti-Britain grows across
Europe, the real estate market and tourism industry in Britain, which is
a major driver of the UK economy, will severely suffer, with most
Europeans avoiding to visit or live in Britain especially as a result of
having to obtain visa to travel to Britain. Also, British universities
and English Language schools, which have been enjoying patronage from
European students who schooling in Britain will no longer guarantee them
some post-education jobs will no longer be the case. Over four million
non-British Europeans living and working in the UK, including many
international footballers will have to leave Britain because of
difficulty of getting Britain’s work permits. This exodus of highly
skilled workforce would be a big blow to the British economy which is
more of a service economy than an industrial economy.
But to be fair to Britain, the
questions are: How come major EU political and economic institutions
were shared among only three countries—Belgium, France and Germany
without considering locating one of these institutions in Britain? Also,
why such an influx of unskilled EU labour to Britain, including those
who had to relocate to Britain simply to claim unemployment benefits, a
cost borne by British taxpayers?
Forced out of Eurozone customs
union, British goods will encounter fierce tariff walls in the EU, which
too could trigger new global economic rearrangements, and possibly the
abandonment of free trade agreements promoted by World Trade
Organisation. With the absence of globalisation that triggers a new
recourse to economic nationalism and protectionism, African countries,
particularly Nigeria, will no longer allow themselves as the dumping
grounds of cheaper and better foreign made gods that have destroyed
their industrial and manufacturing economies.
While NATO will remain in fact
the major military power involving the US and Europe, the absence of the
UK as a major player in the EU military and security decision-making
will adversely affect the US use of Britain to have most of its way in
such decisions. Besides major military hardware and software EU business
enjoyed by Britain’s Royal Military Industrial Complex, Airbus, which
besides using most of Rolls Royce engines and British navigational
technologies, thousands of British engineers will have to be forced out
of the Airbus. Large scale EU-driven research and development will
exclude the UK along with hundreds of billions of dollars annually spent
on subsidising European agriculture no longer enjoyed by British
farmers. Denied free and easier access to the EU market, most British
companies, particularly automakers such as Range Rover and international
oil companies such as Shell that have their major markets in the EU
would think of relocating from Britain to Eurozone economy since that is
the only way they could continue to enjoy unrestricted access to the
EU’s large consumer market.
Enjoying such a breathing space,
Nigeria will not hesitate to roll out some draconian tariff policies in
an effort to protect its infant industries from strong and powerful
foreign made goods that have forced most of the country’s small
businesses into premature bankruptcies. Also, as the pound falls along
with one of the most priced real estate markets in the world, most
Nigerians who kept their savings or their stolen money in Britain would
like to exit the pounds and sell off their collapsing real estate
assets. Here, they will meet their waterloo since the UK anti-graft and
ant-money laundry authorities will refuse, threatening to hand them over
to their counterparts in Nigeria. This is good for Nigeria.
Another benefit to Nigeria is
that as Britain is kicked out of the EU, it has to renegotiate its trade
agreements with virtually other countries including Nigeria, which it
does on weaker terms. As the pound plunges, British goods, including
industrial products such as plants and equipment, will become cheaper in
countries like Nigeria. With the absence of the EU, British investors
will have no option but to begin to invest in countries like Nigeria;
this could mean relocating many factories from the EU to Nigeria.
No comments:
Post a Comment